May 12, 2008 01:47 pm
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INDIANAPOLIS — Thank you, Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Love, Barack Obama.
Obama ended the worst two weeks of his presidential run with a razor-thin loss to Hillary Clinton in Indiana. His salve came earlier in the evening in North Carolina where he trounced Clinton, and the result stands to open the superdelegate floodgates in coming days. The nomination fight is essentially over. But the fact remains that Rev. Wright couldn’t have picked a worse time to speak out and get some national media action. CNN reports that exit polling showed that 48 percent of Hoosier Democrats said the Rev. Wright controversy influenced their votes, while 49 percent said it didn’t. And an overwhelming majority of those who were affected were white, blue-collar workers, or as the national media calls them, “lunch-bucket Democrats.”
Obama had to endure not only the Rev. Wright factor, but also waves of Republicans and independents who crossed over to vote in Democratic primaries. There was goading by conservative radio host Rush Limbaugh, who urged Republicans to create “chaos” by extending the Democratic nomination process to August.
The vote totals swelled for a number of legislative Democratic candidates in extremely Republican areas such as Goshen and North Manchester. In the April 29 Howey-Gauge Poll, 10 percent of registered Indiana Republican voters intended to vote in the Democratic primary with Clinton leading that group 50-44 percent. CNN reported Wednesday that 10 percent of Republicans actually crossed over, but 23 percent of the total were independents. CNN political analyst Bill Schneider characterized the “Rush Limbaugh effect” as “slightly measurable.” But when the plurality was just 14,000 votes, it might have been enough to throw the race to Hillary Clinton.
Obama campaign manager David Plouffe agreed that Limbaugh, “had a clear factor in the outcome.”
Obama also had to withstand the organization of U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh, who “seamlessly” integrated with the Clintons and brought along the Democratic Party establishment and 40 county chairs. Even so, many in the Clinton inner camp were expecting a victory in the 5 to 8 percent range, rather than the 50.9 to 49.1 percent margin. In tandem with the North Carolina loss and a wash among the delegates, the Clinton campaign came off its Indiana victory on its heels.
What cut into the Hoosier margin that Clinton so desperately needed? One was the federal gas tax holiday. I’ve never seen a public policy position so widely panned as this one. In 2000, there wasn’t nearly the negative reaction to Gov. Frank O’Bannon’s gas tax suspension. This could be attributed to the fact that it had been 21 years (1979) since the last fuel shock. This time around, it’s been coming at us in increments over the last eight years. Most Hoosiers realize there’s a bigger problem that vastly transcends Hillary Clinton’s pandering.
Another factor is that Sen. Lugar has been very vocal on energy security issues over the past several years. While this probably wouldn’t poll substantially, there is a growing awareness. Lugar has done scores of press briefings at E-85 gas stations around the state and has spoken to many Rotary and Kiwanis clubs (among others) about linking energy to national security. He conducts an energy conference at Purdue University. Hoosiers were a bit wiser when this issue came up this time.
Bayh thought that the economic issues forged Hillary’s narrow win. “To move from 10 points back against a formidable opponent who is out-spending you 3-to-1, well, that’s a good piece of work,” Bayh said after the vote. “The keys to victory? It involved the candidate starting with what she stood for, which is that focus on the middle-class economic issues.”
But how can she win the nomination?
“She has to keep winning, and we’ll just see how it plays out,” said Bayh. “I know what the math is, and I also know that life and politics are unpredictable. We don't know what will happen over the next few weeks. Barack has an advantage at this point.”
Despite these pressures, and to their credit, both campaigns managed to run a fairly clean race here, lending credence to a gut-felt notion I’ve had that Hoosier voters have little stomach for negative ads. There were few gaffes, but little in the way of inflammatory and divisive headlines. The candidates and their surrogates branched through the countryside to talk about issues, about their hopes and plans for the state and the nation.
For many voters, the choice between Obama and Clinton came down to matters of the heart, mind ... and skin color. Unfortunately, the Indiana Democratic Party’s racial fault lines were exposed. Comments from state legislators, fundraisers, party activists and other journalists revealed that a number of Hoosier Democrats simply could not muster a vote for an African-American for president. And this, in a party that has carried 80 to 90 percent of the African-American vote in gubernatorial, senatorial, congressional, legislative and municipal races.
I cannot remember another political candidate who had to answer for his pastor in a political context. In Indiana this spring, it played a role in who won a primary. But, because Obama lost by only the tiniest margin, it may not shift the ultimate course of history.
Brian Howey, a Peru native, is the publisher of The Howey Political Report. He can be reached at www.howeypolitics.com
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Brian Howey