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June 30, 2013

HOWEY: A fight brews back home again

(Continued)

Long said he would instruct his legal staff and experts to “conduct a thorough analysis” of the case. Attorney General Greg Zoeller will as well “I fully anticipate that both the Senate and House will be voting on a marriage amendment next session,” Long predicted.

House Minority Leader Scott Pelath, D-Michigan City, sees it as branding the state’s constitution with “inequality,” creating a “blemish on Indiana history.”

Several have suggested such a constitutional amendment will put the state at odds with the 14th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution: “All persons born or naturalized in the United States and subject to jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the state wherein they reside. No state shall make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of citizens of the United States nor shall any state deprive any person of life, liberty or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.”

In 2011, before Indiana Republicans took super majorities in both chambers, the House backed the gay marriage ban 70-26 with 14 Democrats voting with the majority, and it passed the Senate 40-10, with four Democrats joining the majority.

So the chances of this ending up on the November 2014 ballot are pretty good.

Will voters pass it, as the governor expects them to do?

In modern politics, few issues have shifted as dramatically as gay marriage. In a May national Pew Research Poll, 51 percent backed same-sex marriage, up from 32 percent in 2003.

In the April Howey Politics Indiana Poll conducted by Republican pollster Christine Matthews, 50 percent supported the constitutional amendment and 46 percent opposed. In the October 2012 Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll, 48 percent backed the amendment and 45 percent were against.

In the April poll, independent voters were split with 44 percent backing the amendment and 42 percent opposed, compared to 37/53 percent for Democrats and 57/37 percent for Republicans. But among younger and older Republicans, cross tabulations show that those 18 to 44 years old favored the amendment 52/43 percent, compared to those 45 and over who favored it 60 to 33 percent.

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